Friday, September 08, 2006

summer reading, part I

By now Im sure you all realize I am not much of a writer. My entries are few and far between, and I'll admit, lame compared to most of what I read on these blogsites. However I am still compelled from time to time to record my thoughts and various ideas and concepts that run through my brain. And my memory is so bad I tend to forget everything, even my own thoughts! So I write this mainly for me. Having people read it is a bonus. Its an ego boost - or blast - depending on how it goes. Thank you all for being supportive. You know who you are.

I have been reading like a fiend this summer, mostly non-fiction. Most of my free time the past few months has been (and still is) spent immersed in such works as: Confessions of an Economic Hit Man (US foreign policy) The Long Emergency (Peak Oil & various ramifications) Plan B (saving the world in the face of Peak Oil) Powerdown (same) Omnivore's Dilemma (food production in the US) Animals in Translation (animal behavior from the perspective of an autistic animal scientist) Still on my list to read are: The Looming Tower: Al-Qaida and the Road to 9/11, Imperial Hubris (more 9/11 shit) and Che Guevara: a Revolutionary Life. I don't know how I'm gonna get through it all, but for some reason I've developed this insane craving to LEARN LEARN LEARN about every little thing and read everything about it I can get my hands on. And then try to digest it all.

Its funny how you can go through life thinking you know at least something about what's going on in the world - I mean, I went to college, I was an activist in college for god sake. I read a good newspaper every morning and have what I presume to be intelligent conversations with intelligent thoughtful people on a daily basis - only to be slapped in the face with my own naivete after reading some of these books.

For instance, take the concept of Peak Oil. I mean, obviously there's only a finite amount of oil on this planet and obviously it cannot last forever. But did you know that we are scheduled to run out completely within the next (approximately) thirty years? That's within my lifetime, people, and surely most of yours. In fact, I'm embarrassed to say, I didn't really understand the concept of Peak Oil until very recently. So just in case there are any readers here that are unfamiliar with the term, Peak Oil is when world oil production starts to decline and consumption begins to outpace it, and a downward slide begins where supply cannot possibly meet demand (heres a link to a more thorough explanation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_Oil) The big elephant under the rug is, that said Peak is quite probably occurring as we speak, certainly within the next several years, and the downward slide looming just around the corner. We may be able to hold it off for a few more years, depending on how much the Saudi's are still sitting on - the only significant question in geologists minds, btw. So that mystery untapped oil field some of you think the oil companies are hiding from us? Believe me, it either doesn't exist, or its already been factored in to the equation. I know, I know, the oil companies (and particularly the Saudis) manipulate "flow" and therefore prices all the time, create gluts and fake shortages etc. But this is all short-term stuff. We're talking Big Picture here. We're running out of oil, folks. Believe it.

I also had no idea so much of our economy/products/food production/livelihood etc. depends on oil. Cheap oil, to be precise. It goes WAY beyond gas for our cars, folks. Read the book (or one of many others on the subject) I'm guessing a few of you may be as shocked as I am. And frightened. And frankly, pissed. Apparently we have pretty much used up most of the easy "sweet" i.e. cheap oil already. And what's left - the part we'll be extracting for the next thirty years, is the thick, less than pure and otherwise difficult stuff, which takes more energy to get out of the ground and refine than it will ultimately yield. So don't look for gas prices to come down any time soon (read: ever) in fact, in the next few years, look for them to skyrocket beyond your wildest dreams.

Meanwhile, here we are squandering away what's left of our (planet earth's) oil endowment on huge gas-guzzling cars like Hummers that the feds give you a tax incentive to buy, for crying out loud. Not to mention subsidizing the fossil fuel industry to the tune of $200 billion a year, while spending pennies in comparison to develop alternative sources of energy. And even if we had ethanol or biofuel stations on every street corner, what cars are being sold in the US that can run on these fuels? In effect, none.

Think about this: When all the countries start scrambling for the last drops of oil, nothing, no place, will be considered sacred. We can forget about protecting the ANWR and the California Coast, or anywhere else there might be a hint of "easy" oil. The thought of this alone makes me feel sick and defeated. And who is going to get the last drops of oil, anyway? Well the US, certainly. But what about China, who as we speak is modernizing at full bore and is building a completely unsustainable infrastructure... dependent on oil!? My guess is they're gonna be mighty pissed when they find out their share has already been used up.

So, what about Plan B, you may ask? There's a guy out there named Lester Brown - started the World Watch Institute a couple decades ago, now head of the Earth Policy Institute. Brilliant man, quite visionary. Well, he's outlined a plan - he calls it Plan B (which is the name of his book) whereas if we would only implement his ideas (changing taxation and subsidies to favor alternative fuels, for example) we might have a chance at saving civilization from the ultimate inevitable collapse resulting from the end of the oil age, among other things. He also talks about disease, poverty, water shortages, and other threats to civilization and offers many ideas toward solutions. I recommend his book, although I found it to be reservedly hopeful at best, probably over optimistic. The problem is that the powers that be i.e. govt's/corporations have no vision beyond greed, and greed talks. And no one wants to make any sacrifices.

I wish I had some answer, some easy quip of a solution, but at this point in time, I'm afraid there is none. And who do we blame? The republicans? Nice try. Truth is, the only US leader who ever had any vision in regard to creating a sustainable energy policy was Jimmy Carter. And look what happened to him.

I think back to when I was in college in the late '60s and we were all on the bandwagon for conservation, fuel efficient cars, public transportation, recycling, organics, etc etc. not to mention most of us were anti-war pacifists. Then we grew up. Somehow our idealism got lost. We became selfish, and greedy. We trusted business/science/governments to do the right thing, and went along with "progress." We hid our heads in the sand when food/products kept getting cheaper and cheaper and never thought to ask why or what the real cost was. We wanted bigger houses, more powerful cars. We stopped reading the ingredient labels, and the fine print in general. We willingly let the wool get pulled over our eyes, and we got screwed. And we have only ourselves to blame.

Then for some reason, this summer I decided to wake up.

So I started reading. And watching, and listening. And talking.

Sitting at an intersection in my own car ('88 Volvo wagon, 26 mpg, gasoline only) watching all the hundreds of other cars charging at a snails pace around me, almost all holding a solo driver, and I think: This is insane. How did we get here? How do we get out?

more later....

8 comments:

Centuryhouse said...

I haven't read any of the 'Peak Oil' books that you mentioned, but I have had many of those concerns for a while.

While I believe the supply may last a little longer than 30 years, I see the problem as being just as bad due to 1) the growing need for oil from other nations (China, India, etc) and 2) oil producers using oil as a leverage tool or weapon against the US or Europe.

The oil producers will no longer need the US to buy their oil, but we will still need them. Worse, they hate us and actively want our downfall - and oil will be the tool. Ever watch or read "Dune"? Oil is our 'spice'. There is nothing the US can do about it. It will get bad I think.

I see gas prices in the near future as being beyond anything most of us would imagine. In turn, that will affect the cost of all foods and goods as they must be shipped to reach us. Our costs on everything will skyrocket, but our pay wont be rising to keep up with it. I'm not an economics expert, but I see the US having serious economic troubles ahead that will match the Great Depression. I hope to be proven wrong, but...

Bright future ahead folks! :-(

daydreamer said...

Everything you say is true, Daniel - except I disagree that there is nothing the US can do about it. We need to develop alternative energy, NOW! Did you know that Brazil is running 40% of their vehicles on methane? They're way ahead of us. Its shameful.

Bimbo said...

Look at you, smart girl. (I realize that this may be a dangerous delusion, but it's one I need to keep focused on coming to resolutions for these problems.) As long as there continues to be people like you who are willing to read, and learn, and try, we can come to a viable solution. We can make changes happen on behalf of ourselves and the Earth. Please let me know what you think of the Che bio when you're done, whenever that may be. I've been poking around looking for a good one on him.

Centuryhouse said...

I didn't mean to imply that there was nothing we could do about our oil dependance, I should have phrased it better. I mean that as long as we are oil dependant we are perpetuating this situation.

I would love to see a feasble energy alternative, so far I'm not seeing one that's actually workable once you follow it through. That's not to say we shouldn't be researching like crazy though, we need something...

From what I've heard, trying to emulate a system like Brazil's would be impossible in the US due to the higher quantity demand for fuel, and proportionately less land to use for growing the needed crops. We'd have to import the substitutes (ethanol etc) from other countries, which again makes us dependent on foreign energy and would wreck large swaths of the environment as huge tracks of land are cleared to make room for this.

One thing that would help greatly in small ways would be small common sense things that companies & individuals can implement. My job for instance - there are 5 of us in my group, and only need for ONE person to be on site at a given time. The rest of us could work remotely from home (cutting out the travel 5 days a week for 4 people) and accomplish the same work.

dw

daydreamer said...

I agree, no single solution can solve the problem. You're right about ethanol. Brazil uses sugar cane, which converts into double or triple what we get out of corn, our primary source of ethanol. Biofuel has much more potenial as you can make it out of literally anything. What I'd like to see is a biofuel/electric hybrid. Of course we'd have to start utilizing solar, wind etc. to keep up with electric demand. The more sources of energy we develop, the better. That's the supply end.

On the demand end, we need to conserve. We need more fuel efficient cars, which they have in Europe but we can't seem to get here. More than that, we need to get out of our cars! Put $$ back into alternative methods of transportation ie rail, streetcars, busses, bikes etc. Cities need to be designed for pedestrians. Cities need to be designed so that people can live in them, as opposed to having to waste time and fuel commuting from the suburbs. Employers need to offer the option of telecommuting , like you suggest.

If we took every alt energy/transportation idea and every conservation idea and progressed on it even a little, our oil use would be slashed. I believe, theoretically at least, we could save ourselves.

Of course I realize this is all dreaming. Many sacrifices and lifestyle changes would have to be made. And most of us aren't gonna want to make those changes.

Thanks for your comments, Daniel. I wish some other folks would chime in... I know you're out there :-)

Centuryhouse said...

Cities being designed for pedestrians is a great point. Looking at Dallas where I live, it is nearly impossible to get around on foot or bike. If moving forward we were to work at making our communities/suburbs more pedestrian friendly it would be immensely helpful. Also, if we could locate our businesses/jobs closer to residential areas (instead of 10-15 miles away) we could eliminate the auto commutes. I'd love to be able to bike to work.

Small economic cars are a good idea, but unfortunately can lead to death here where much larger cars occupy the same roads. My brother drives a small sardine can type car, and was hit by another smaller car - the back bumper actually pushed the front seats into the dash. It totalled it, and would have killed his daughter had she been in the back seat, fortunately they were on the way to pick her up so the seat was empty. By contrast a standard or larger size car would have had a dented bumper & trunk with no passenger space damage. The safety factor of size disparity between automobiles has to be addressed before people will downsize. This will take time, and at this point we're not maving in that direction at all. When gas hits the right price though, people will start moving that way again.

Here, our bussing system is horrible. There are some limited railways that have just been built that can take people back and forth between the suburbs and downtown, which is a great idea.

daydreamer said...

Oh shit, folks, looks like I was wrong.

Gas prices are down and "should" keep falling, according to what I just read in the Mercury News this morning. Crude has dropped from an all-time high of $78/barrel to $64 and is declining. PRODUCTION IS UP!!! Demand is down! All is well ~

Oh, goody - I guess I'll go out and buy that SUV I've had my eye on. After all, I deserve it! No worries, folks ~ carry on as usual.

Over and out,
Sandy

(back in a few days)

Centuryhouse said...

Don't worry, those gas prices will be up again soon. Something to look forward to ;-)

Daniel